Media

Why we made the Predict Conference a ‘Conference Series’

When we were planning the Predict Conference we had multiple aims. We wanted to celebrate the rise of data analytics and connect with the data and wider industry by sharing insights in a great event in Dublin city. It became pretty clear early on that there was too much going on in this sector to fit into one day, so we expanded it to two. An offer of a workshop on predictive analytics methods and another one on ethics and data grew it to a third day. Read on...

The 80/20 Rule - Does the Pareto Principle Hold True in Cosmetic Exposure?

It is a common rule that 20% of our efforts produce 80% of our results. Therefore, subsequently, 80% of our efforts produce only 20% of our results. This ‘80/20 rule’ was first discovered in 1906 by Vilfredo Pareto, an Italian economist.
Pareto found that 80% of land in Italy was owned by 20% of the people. He also discovered that 20% of pea pods in his garden produced 80% of the peas. This 80/20 rule has since been found to be true in various areas including business, computers and health. So can this 80/20 rule be applied to cosmetic exposure? Read more...

From Oil Reserves to Consumer Safety: Avoiding Pitfalls in Aggregate Exposure

How could this vast underestimation of such important information happen? And, why? You may also be wondering what all of this has to do with consumer exposure. It all comes down to working with data, statistics and mathematical models.
The impact of this is that decision makers end up working with poor information when attempting to make important decisions. For example, the environmental challenges which we face could be much greater than currently expected. And knowing the world’s oil reserves is of course not just important in terms of environmental sustainability; the petroleum industry is hugely important in economic terms. Read on...

Monte Carlo or Bust?

UK-based readers of a certain age may remember a weather forecast that gained notoriety for the reporter, who reassured viewers that rumours of an impending hurricane were unfounded.
The report went out on the evening of October 15th, 1987 and the next day a storm hit the South East of England resulting in the loss of 18 lives and £2 billion worth of damage. (More details on that ill-fated weather forecast can be found here, and a video clip can be viewed here). In 2012, researchers took the exact same data that was used to make the prediction for that evening’s news in 1987, and used it to generate a prediction with today’s technology; the resulting forecast showed a 40% chance of a storm, a likelihood that was completely missed by the 1987 forecast. Continue...

How to Correctly Estimate the Weight of an Ox

Sir Francis Galton (born 1828) was posed with the exact same challenge when a county fair came to town. He and all the other fair attendees were given the opportunity to win a prize by correctly estimating the weight of an ox.
Sir Francis Galton was curious about the peoples’ estimates and at the end of the competition, when the winner was announced, he asked for a list of those estimates. He took this data away and analysed it. He discovered something interesting when he arranged all the estimated ox weights from lowest to highest. He found that the correct weight of the ox was very close to the middle value between lowest to highest in the range of estimates. This ‘middlemost’ estimate, known as the Median, best reflected the actual weight of the ox. The important question arises, was this a random result or is there something more fundamental going on? Read on to find out more.
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